2009-05-27

Intel - doing nothing quickly

Meet Intel, Software Maker and Rival to Microsoft - NYTimes.com:

As Renee J. James of Intel puts it, “You can’t just throw hardware out there into the world” without accompanying software.
I love it when Intel decides it needs yet another software initiative. "You can't just throw hardware out there into the world." Well, as a matter of fact, you can, and you have, and you will. There are more and smarter people working on ways to use Intel hardware outside of Intel than there will ever be inside of Intel. Intel needs to make sure their hardware is cheap. With better documentation.

It will be a first for Intel f this "Moblin" thing takes off. It's more likely to inspire smarter people outside of Intel to make a version of Linux for smart phones. Oh wait, ...

[Update 2009 05 28 ... Speaking of which, Intel announced the Nehalem bad-ass 8 core Xeon processor today.]

[Update 2009 05 29 ... Hey, no disrespect to Renee J. James; I've worked with a couple of former Intel software engineers and they were both terrific.]
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Still Trying




I'm still trying to get a great shot of downtown Bellevue construction. The problem is that because of freeway construction I have a detour through 4th Street where I see this awesome view but I'm not in a position to take a great picture! This time I took a shot while sitting in the car.

The view, as I drive by, is really quite stunning. Maybe it needs to be in motion in order to appreciate the scale and dimensionality of the construction and the lighting. Once these buildings are done the construction lights will be gone and the cool factor will be significantly reduced.

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2009-05-26

Hammer Time


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2009-05-24

Revolving Door

Obama to Government Motors: "Let's Roll" - Karen De Coster - Mises Institute:

The revolving door between Wall Street and the bowels of Washington are getting a workout. It's the guys from Wall Street who run the government and the guys from government who run Wall Street. Only the guys from Wall Street - especially Goldman Sachs - who have taken over the Treasury Department are now taking over control of the domestic auto industry. You know what happened when they tried to run their own company, Goldman Sachs.
Emphasis added.

The big investment banks are the kings of leveraged banking. They've taken it to new levels of insanity.

Murry Rothbard wrote that fractional reserve banking is fraud. I couldn't agree more.

If you read enough Austrian economic literature (and I guess I've read enough to know the pattern, but nowhere near enough to be an expert on the subject), you'll notice a great deal of use of the word "if". For instance, in Rothbard's excellent The Mystery of Banking he describes how "free banking" would work. And the description is filled with (actual or implied) "if" clauses.

On page 113, Rothbard writes:
The bank run is a marvelously effective weapon because (a) it is irresistible, since once it gets going it cannot be stopped, and (b) it serves as a dramatic device for calling everyone’s attention to the inherent unsoundness and insolvency of fractional reserve banking. Hence, bank runs feed on one another, and can induce other bank runs to follow. Bank runs instruct the public in the essential fraudulence of fractional reserve banking, in its essence as a giant Ponzi scheme in which a few people can redeem their deposits only because most depositors do not follow suit.
But history tells us the threat of a bank run has a very different effect: the threat of a bank run encourages bankers to collude with one another to prevent bank runs. It does not prevent fractional reserve banking, which is a highly profitable business (I guess some would say the use of "profit" is a misnomer when income is based on fraud, but I digress); instead, it leads to collusion amongst bankers to prevent bank runs. This eventually results in so much collusion that a central bank is created to organize the collusion. And then the central banks collude; now they are debasing all of the world's currency somewhat in parallel.

All of this to avoid the biggest bank run of all: the dreaded run on the dollar.

To be sure, China is playing both sides. China continues to buy Treasury bonds (colluding with our central bank) but China is also taking steps to create yet another reserve currency.

(I read a really great conspiracy theory recently: China can convert its potentially valueless US Treasury and Agency debt into real goods by using the debt as AAA collateral for loans to buy gold (0r other commodities). If the value of the dollar drops significantly, the loan can be paid off in inflated dollars; or China can simply default, and let the owner of the loan have the US Treasuries backing the loan. That's pretty clever.)

This gets me back to primary thesis about banking: it is only by expanding the universe of banks that collude one with another that the Ponzi scheme of fractional reserve banking can continue. This is why a global central bank is inevitable unless we put an end to fractional reserve banking. It's fraud - but worse - it's fraud that spreads like a virus, slowly sucking in all productivity in a mad rush to make money from money rather than productivity and creativity. As the collusion continues the only way to make more money is with higher leverage which is made possible by the collusion. It is a Ponzi scheme that refuses to collapse.

How annoying.

Sadly, you can't outlaw fractional reserve banking. People have tried. The bankers, who have a great deal of money, just bribe the right people to get the laws changed. In principle, over a long enough time frame, market forces will correct this error, but at huge cost, as a huge amount of productivity is destroyed. Who wants that?

An once of prevention is worth a pound of cure.


I have a friend who has an idea for a technology that might finally put an end to this vicious cycle. The general principle, as he has described it to me, makes a lot of sense; however, getting to the point of a simple implementation has been hard. (Plus, it's a hobby task!) Still, I find myself thinking more and more about his idea and how to implement it with a clever hack.

Well, regardless of whether my friend figures it out, or someone else does, we need an inoculation for the viral infection that is fractional reserve banking. Otherwise it will eventually consume us all.

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2009-05-23

Convention Center

I'm still taking pictures of the Convention Center.  I am drawn to its shapes! (The colors are good too, but I really like the shapes.)

I like the lines from the shadows, the way you can see the other buildings through the glass, and the dimensionality of the space.

It's so cool!


From Seattle



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2009-05-21

Inflation is here

NPR: Hear: Where It All Began:

Ian sends an indicator from Seattle:

I have an indicator for you: $7.25.

That is the cost of the meal deal formerly known as Arby's 5 for $5 where you pick five items from a small menu for a fixed price. The Northgate Arby's restaurant in Seattle is now offering the same menu at 5 for $7.25.

This is one of many little things Ive seen creeping up in price and so I feel you guys continue to be right that deflation is the least of our fears.
My wife noticed a can of tuna at Trader Joe's that was $0.99 a couple of weeks ago was $1.49.

And my favorite bag of chips, Lay's Natural, increased from $2.99 to $3.99 over the last couple of months.



On the other hand, a cruise to Alaska is half price.

In everyday terms, serious price inflation is here. In "macro economic" terms (assuming there is such a thing), monetary deflation is here. Of course, most of the monetary deflation was imaginary money ($500 trillion or something? half a quadrillion?) created as accounting entries called Credit Default Swaps, so only bankers are going to miss that money, except they're getting refunds from the federal government, so not even the bankers are going to miss that money.
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2009-05-20

No guarantees

Deficit of Pension Guarantor Hits Record $33.5 billion - NYTimes.com:

"WASHINGTON — The deficit at the federal agency that guarantees pensions for 44 million Americans more than doubled in the last six months to a record high, reaching $33.5 billion, largely as a result of the surging number of bankruptcies among companies whose pensions it must now take over."
My opinion is that there should be no such thing as a guarantee for any financial instrument. It provides an illusion of safety that leads to mistakes. It's not just government guarantees that lead to moral hazard - it's any kind of financial guarantee.

All financial instruments have risk - including guarantees. Put that into your recursive pipe and smoke it.
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2009-05-19

Thesis

My thesis about banking is:

It is impossible to maintain a fractional reserve banking system without universal inflation of the currency.

My wife introduced me to the saying,

"The obvious is that which is never seen until someone expresses it simply."

Now, "w00t" if my thesis is obvious to you, 'cause I'm done. But for most people I doubt it will be obvious. And figuring out how to express a few currently non-obvious details will take some effort on my part. So this might take a while to fully develop. And I may need to revise my thesis slightly. Most likely I'll develop the full concept over on my main web site, Above the Garage Productions.

And, by the way, if you're of a Libertarian bent, you'll enjoy the excellent articles by Alvin Lowi that I am privileged to host.

And, if someone has already figured this out*, I'd be happy to hear about it. It would save me a lot of effort.



* I mean besides Federal Reserve chairmen.

[Fix - "uniform -> universal". - ht Vincent.]

Blogged with the Flock Browser

Waste of time?

Just when you think all your rantin' and ravin' has been a complete waste of time... you discover your blog is the number two item returned for the following Google Search:

How to stop hyperinflation

So there's hope.


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Flock you!

I'm posting this from Flock.  Just to try it out.  'cause I do stuff like that.

Disneyland Hotel:

 

Seattle:

 

Hmm.
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2009-05-15

The Prudent Investor: The US debt balloon - a simple explanation for non-economists

The Prudent Investor: The US debt balloon - a simple explanation for non-economists

This is a very nice, extremely simple post about the path we are on to the bankruptcy of the federal government (and since the federal government is the primary supplier now of cash for state and local governments, I guess that will be the end of them too).

Luckily, it's easy enough to make a new government. The main trick will be creating a new government that works better than the old one. It's trivial to make a new, really bad government.

I have finally figured out the secret behind all of our (main) problems.* It's frighteningly simple to understand although I have no solution in mind.

The Austrians and the Libertarians almost have it right. The one question they never answer is - if capitalism is so great, why would anyone veer away from it?

Interesting question.


* How's that for a boast?

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2009-05-12

Cranes



Speaking of cranes, here's a big one, in downtown Seattle. Lots of construction there too.



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Chocolate





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Everything you need



  1. Domestic cold water - check.
  2. Waste disposal - check.
  3. Ethernet cabling - check.
We're good to go!

Plus, this was at the Pike Pub and Brewery, so, you know, there's lots of beer around, just in case.

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Don't worry, be happy




Hey, massive inflation ahead! Don't worry, be happy!
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Economic Disconnect

Economic Disconnect: Signs of the Times:

Signs of the Times

It has long been a central theme here at Economic Disconnect that the concepts of 'confidence' and 'group think' makes up the backbone of our financial system. The header of this blog reads 'Examining the disconnect between perception and reality' and this gulf must be maintained in order for the highly leveraged economic scheme to function. Tonight I will present several items that highlight just how bad a joke the situation had become.
And this guy, "Economic Disconnect", says all the things I want to say, but better, and with better research.
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Bank Stocks: What Could Still Go Wrong

Bank Stocks: What Could Still Go Wrong

The link is to a good list of events still waiting to attack the banking system. It's a good list, and I'm tired of repeating what is likely to go wrong, and why, absent massive government intervention, most banks are still insolvent. Since government intervention is likely the follow on result from that will be significant if not massive inflation.
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2009-05-10

The metaview

Banks Brace for Credit Card Write-Offs - NYTimes.com:

"But if unemployment breaches 10 percent, as many economists predict, the rate of uncollectible balances at some banks could far exceed that level. At American Express and Capital One Financial, around 20 percent of the credit card balances are expected to go bad over this year and next, according to stress test results. At Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, about 23 percent of card loans are expected to sour.

Even the government’s grim projections may vastly understate the size of the banks’ credit card troubles. According to estimates by Oliver Wyman, a management consulting firm, card losses at the nation’s biggest banks could reach $141.5 billion by 2010 if the regulators’ loss rate was applied to their entire credit card business. It could top $186 billion for the entire credit card industry."
I have a zillion links I collected over the last few days about the bogus stress test results, but I have settled with the link above to the New York Times.

The main points for all of those links I saved up are as follows:

  • The stress test scenario was not negative enough.
  • The banks argued back about the results and the results were changed!
  • Assumptions for individual banks were wrong; BofA, which has huge credit card exposure, was assumed to have defaults below the national average.
  • The stress tests say the banks need as much as $600 billion dollars in additional equity; but they are only required to find an extra $75 billion. For BofA, that's a dilution of almost 50% of it's current market value.
For most people, the financial meltdown is happening in an alternate universe. I remember when the run on the money market funds was first announced. I wandered over at lunch time to get some money out of the ATM machine. It was located at a busy mall and everyone was carrying on as if nothing significant was happening.

The end has been expected ever since we went off the gold standard in 1971. The value of a dollar is about 5% of what it was when FDR confiscated everyone's gold. If the value of a dollar has dropped so much, then why aren't things much worse?

I say it's because the efficiency of American business has outstripped the ability of the government (so far) to print money. Computers are a million times faster than they were a few decades ago. That has had a huge impact on everything from communication to transportation.

I would like to believe that American ingenuity will outstrip the government's money printing operation but I don't think so this time. The world has changed. China is a huge world power and holds a lot of our debt. Consumer spending has been tapped out. The value of home mortgages (and by implication a lot of retirement money) has been tapped out. The baby boomers managed to contribute more to the Social Security Ponzi scheme than was taken out but those times are changing too. The leverage of the banking system is higher than it has ever been. Corruption is at amazing highs. Who thought a government agent could lose $50 billion and not even get a slap on the wrist?

I sound like my Dad sounded in the 70's. I personally have never worried about the state of our financial system before now. I always had confidence that American ingenuity would outpace government stupidity. Now I don't think so.

Am I a nutjob? (Don't answer that.)

Well, time will tell. I certainly don't think the level of concern I have makes me a nutjob. What's not to be concerned about?

  • China doubles its holdings of gold;
  • The balance sheet of the federal reserve is insanely out of control;
  • Record deficit spending;
  • Expected credit card defaults out the wazoo;
  • A prime mortgages are defaulting at increasing rates;
and most importantly:
  • Nobody knows what the fuck is going on.

I will be amazed if Bank of America makes it through the end of the year as an independent concern (and I use the word independent loosely, since it's already on life support). I think it's gonna be the Bank of the United States of America.

I know what you're thinking ... big deal! So what if BofA is nationalized. Indeed. That is a very reasonable response. The idea of hyperinflation caused by all these bailouts (and most importantly the printing of money to keep the federal government from defaulting on its loans) is so hard to conceive. Surely we're not as dumb as those guys in Zimbabwe that printed $50 trillion bills. Are we?

And what if we are? What's a person to do? So why worry about it?

Indeed.
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Better Construction Pic




This is a better* shot of the construction in downtown Bellevue. I used a tripod but even so my camera refused to focus properly. There's probably a way to get it to do what I want hidden away in some submenu. Also, to avoid any motion from touching the camera, I set the timer, so the vibration could settle down before the shutter opened.

You can tell it's a time exposure because the reflection in the water is blurred from the motion of the water.

A friend works for the city of Bellevue and he said that a couple of years ago there were 36 big cranes rented west of the Mississippi and Bellevue had 17 of them. Overall office occupancy rates are only down 5% which is absolutely great news because we can hope that the commercial real estate bubble deflation that is coming over the next year will have a "soft landing" in Bellevue (as the pundits like to say). Although, man, that's a lot of new office space. Luckily Microsoft seems focused on filling up a lot of it.

* Better - better focus. But I rather like the previous one, art-wise.

[Update: I guess all of the other cranes were in Las Vegas.]
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2009-05-08

Bellevue Under Construction



If you look really hard, you might see the Enterprise getting built.

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2009-05-07

Safe Haven | China Stirs a Pot of Gold

Safe Haven | China Stirs a Pot of Gold:

"At the recent G-20 London meetings, China called for a new international monetary order with a gold link. This was followed by the sudden disclosure that China had used part of its huge gold output to boost its own reserves by some 600 metric tons, a 75% increase in total holdings since 2003. In his first hundred days in office, President Obama's administration has injected nearly $40 billion each day into U.S. economy. Given the inflationary impact that such a torrent of new cash will spark, it is logical that the Chinese hedge their $1 trillion dollar position with a more reliable store of value."
Just so you know, many Safe Haven articles are pushing gold (hence the name). Not that there's anything wrong with that ...
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Geithner’s Promise - Floyd Norris Blog - NYTimes.com

Geithner’s Promise - Floyd Norris Blog - NYTimes.com:

"Goldman Sachs, when it said it wanted to repay the $10 billion TARP investment it received from the government, said it had no intention of retiring the $28 billion in debt it had issued with F.D.I.C. guarantees. Indeed, it wanted to issue more such debt."
Emphasis added.

The banks can borrow money dirt-cheap because of FDIC guarantees; that's yet another form of government support. Goldman Sachs is intimating that it needs those guarantees to stay in business.
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2009-05-05

Nation Ready To Be Lied To About Economy Again

Nation Ready To Be Lied To About Economy Again | The Onion - America's Finest News Source:

"WASHINGTON—After nearly four months of frank, honest, and open dialogue about the failing economy, a weary U.S. populace announced this week that it is once again ready to be lied to about the current state of the financial system.

Tired of hearing the grim truth about their economic future, Americans demanded that the bald-faced lies resume immediately, particularly whenever politicians feel the need to divulge another terrifying problem with Wall Street, the housing market, or any one of a hundred other ticking time bombs everyone was better off not knowing about."
Don't worry - the stress test results are just around the corner.

"I don't need to be constantly reminded that the lack of regulations on Wall Street compounded with failing institutions like AIG basically plunged the world economy into a global recession," said 32-year-old office manager Alexis Harrington. "What I want is for someone to tell me with a straight face that the GDP is through the roof so that I can feel better and instantly forget what all these terms even mean."

"For the first time in my life I know who the secretary of the treasury is," Harrington continued. "And I don't like it."
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2009-05-04

How to make heads explode

No, not by reading too much about the financial meltdown!

With special effects:



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Meltdown Music Video Redux



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Let bad banks fail ...

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Troubled banks must be allowed a way to fail:

"Non-viable institutions would be allowed to fail and be placed into a negotiated conservatorship or a bridge institution, with the bad assets liquidated while the remainder of the firm is operated under new management and re-privatised as soon as is feasible. This plan is similar to what was done in Sweden in the 1990s and in the US with the failure of Continental Illinois in the 1980s."

So says Dr. Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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Interesting Week

Calculated Risk: Financial Times: BofA plans to raise more than $10 Billion in Capital:

This will be an interesting week.
That's an understatement. Assuming the results of the "stress tests" are not pushed back again one can assume that within a day or two of the results that rumors and back stories and leaks and such like will be flying. (There's already been plenty on the leak and/or rumor front.)


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2009-05-02

Semi-Systemic Bank Failure

LOLFed » Sneaking In A Little Fail Before 5PM:

With $4.1 billion in assets, Silverton is the fifth largest bank to fail since the financial crisis intensified in 2008. Its impact could be profound. It provides services to one out of every five banks in the country, and its customers, depositors, and investors are all banks. It did not take deposits from the general public or make loans to consumers.

Some Georgia bankers argued to FDIC officials that Silverton was actually “too big to fail” because they said that its collapse could take at least 8 to 12 banks down with it. Roughly 400 banks are investors in Silverton Bank, and it clears payments and participates in loans with more than 1,000 lenders. It is the largest bankers’ bank in the country.
This is an interesting sort of "test case" for what might happen if BofA goes under (due to, perhaps, needing to raise $60 billion dollars). Silverton was a big bank and no one wanted to buy it; so a "bridge bank" was created. As LolFed says in the article, bankers at one in five of all other banks in the US might be very concerned because a lot of those banks owned bonds backed by Silverton, which are now worthless; the disappearance of the value of those bonds from (potentially) many banks' balance sheets could cause them to become insolvent.

The most likely situation in the case of BofA is that it will in fact be nationalized. The problem with nationalizing BofA is that most businesses won't trust the government to run BofA in an honorable fashion, just as there are huge concerns about strong-arm tactics vis-a-vis Chrysler.

Somtimes the government says it will honor contracts (hmm, well, the one big time was regarding the AIG counterparty payments and bonuses), and other times, uh, not so much.
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Virgin Galactic Spaceship 2 Test Flight



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