2009-05-27

Intel - doing nothing quickly

Meet Intel, Software Maker and Rival to Microsoft - NYTimes.com:

As Renee J. James of Intel puts it, “You can’t just throw hardware out there into the world” without accompanying software.
I love it when Intel decides it needs yet another software initiative. "You can't just throw hardware out there into the world." Well, as a matter of fact, you can, and you have, and you will. There are more and smarter people working on ways to use Intel hardware outside of Intel than there will ever be inside of Intel. Intel needs to make sure their hardware is cheap. With better documentation.

It will be a first for Intel f this "Moblin" thing takes off. It's more likely to inspire smarter people outside of Intel to make a version of Linux for smart phones. Oh wait, ...

[Update 2009 05 28 ... Speaking of which, Intel announced the Nehalem bad-ass 8 core Xeon processor today.]

[Update 2009 05 29 ... Hey, no disrespect to Renee J. James; I've worked with a couple of former Intel software engineers and they were both terrific.]
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Still Trying




I'm still trying to get a great shot of downtown Bellevue construction. The problem is that because of freeway construction I have a detour through 4th Street where I see this awesome view but I'm not in a position to take a great picture! This time I took a shot while sitting in the car.

The view, as I drive by, is really quite stunning. Maybe it needs to be in motion in order to appreciate the scale and dimensionality of the construction and the lighting. Once these buildings are done the construction lights will be gone and the cool factor will be significantly reduced.

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2009-05-26

Hammer Time


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2009-05-24

Revolving Door

Obama to Government Motors: "Let's Roll" - Karen De Coster - Mises Institute:

The revolving door between Wall Street and the bowels of Washington are getting a workout. It's the guys from Wall Street who run the government and the guys from government who run Wall Street. Only the guys from Wall Street - especially Goldman Sachs - who have taken over the Treasury Department are now taking over control of the domestic auto industry. You know what happened when they tried to run their own company, Goldman Sachs.
Emphasis added.

The big investment banks are the kings of leveraged banking. They've taken it to new levels of insanity.

Murry Rothbard wrote that fractional reserve banking is fraud. I couldn't agree more.

If you read enough Austrian economic literature (and I guess I've read enough to know the pattern, but nowhere near enough to be an expert on the subject), you'll notice a great deal of use of the word "if". For instance, in Rothbard's excellent The Mystery of Banking he describes how "free banking" would work. And the description is filled with (actual or implied) "if" clauses.

On page 113, Rothbard writes:
The bank run is a marvelously effective weapon because (a) it is irresistible, since once it gets going it cannot be stopped, and (b) it serves as a dramatic device for calling everyone’s attention to the inherent unsoundness and insolvency of fractional reserve banking. Hence, bank runs feed on one another, and can induce other bank runs to follow. Bank runs instruct the public in the essential fraudulence of fractional reserve banking, in its essence as a giant Ponzi scheme in which a few people can redeem their deposits only because most depositors do not follow suit.
But history tells us the threat of a bank run has a very different effect: the threat of a bank run encourages bankers to collude with one another to prevent bank runs. It does not prevent fractional reserve banking, which is a highly profitable business (I guess some would say the use of "profit" is a misnomer when income is based on fraud, but I digress); instead, it leads to collusion amongst bankers to prevent bank runs. This eventually results in so much collusion that a central bank is created to organize the collusion. And then the central banks collude; now they are debasing all of the world's currency somewhat in parallel.

All of this to avoid the biggest bank run of all: the dreaded run on the dollar.

To be sure, China is playing both sides. China continues to buy Treasury bonds (colluding with our central bank) but China is also taking steps to create yet another reserve currency.

(I read a really great conspiracy theory recently: China can convert its potentially valueless US Treasury and Agency debt into real goods by using the debt as AAA collateral for loans to buy gold (0r other commodities). If the value of the dollar drops significantly, the loan can be paid off in inflated dollars; or China can simply default, and let the owner of the loan have the US Treasuries backing the loan. That's pretty clever.)

This gets me back to primary thesis about banking: it is only by expanding the universe of banks that collude one with another that the Ponzi scheme of fractional reserve banking can continue. This is why a global central bank is inevitable unless we put an end to fractional reserve banking. It's fraud - but worse - it's fraud that spreads like a virus, slowly sucking in all productivity in a mad rush to make money from money rather than productivity and creativity. As the collusion continues the only way to make more money is with higher leverage which is made possible by the collusion. It is a Ponzi scheme that refuses to collapse.

How annoying.

Sadly, you can't outlaw fractional reserve banking. People have tried. The bankers, who have a great deal of money, just bribe the right people to get the laws changed. In principle, over a long enough time frame, market forces will correct this error, but at huge cost, as a huge amount of productivity is destroyed. Who wants that?

An once of prevention is worth a pound of cure.


I have a friend who has an idea for a technology that might finally put an end to this vicious cycle. The general principle, as he has described it to me, makes a lot of sense; however, getting to the point of a simple implementation has been hard. (Plus, it's a hobby task!) Still, I find myself thinking more and more about his idea and how to implement it with a clever hack.

Well, regardless of whether my friend figures it out, or someone else does, we need an inoculation for the viral infection that is fractional reserve banking. Otherwise it will eventually consume us all.

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2009-05-23

Convention Center

I'm still taking pictures of the Convention Center.  I am drawn to its shapes! (The colors are good too, but I really like the shapes.)

I like the lines from the shadows, the way you can see the other buildings through the glass, and the dimensionality of the space.

It's so cool!


From Seattle



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2009-05-21

Inflation is here

NPR: Hear: Where It All Began:

Ian sends an indicator from Seattle:

I have an indicator for you: $7.25.

That is the cost of the meal deal formerly known as Arby's 5 for $5 where you pick five items from a small menu for a fixed price. The Northgate Arby's restaurant in Seattle is now offering the same menu at 5 for $7.25.

This is one of many little things Ive seen creeping up in price and so I feel you guys continue to be right that deflation is the least of our fears.
My wife noticed a can of tuna at Trader Joe's that was $0.99 a couple of weeks ago was $1.49.

And my favorite bag of chips, Lay's Natural, increased from $2.99 to $3.99 over the last couple of months.



On the other hand, a cruise to Alaska is half price.

In everyday terms, serious price inflation is here. In "macro economic" terms (assuming there is such a thing), monetary deflation is here. Of course, most of the monetary deflation was imaginary money ($500 trillion or something? half a quadrillion?) created as accounting entries called Credit Default Swaps, so only bankers are going to miss that money, except they're getting refunds from the federal government, so not even the bankers are going to miss that money.
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2009-05-20

No guarantees

Deficit of Pension Guarantor Hits Record $33.5 billion - NYTimes.com:

"WASHINGTON — The deficit at the federal agency that guarantees pensions for 44 million Americans more than doubled in the last six months to a record high, reaching $33.5 billion, largely as a result of the surging number of bankruptcies among companies whose pensions it must now take over."
My opinion is that there should be no such thing as a guarantee for any financial instrument. It provides an illusion of safety that leads to mistakes. It's not just government guarantees that lead to moral hazard - it's any kind of financial guarantee.

All financial instruments have risk - including guarantees. Put that into your recursive pipe and smoke it.
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2009-05-19

Thesis

My thesis about banking is:

It is impossible to maintain a fractional reserve banking system without universal inflation of the currency.

My wife introduced me to the saying,

"The obvious is that which is never seen until someone expresses it simply."

Now, "w00t" if my thesis is obvious to you, 'cause I'm done. But for most people I doubt it will be obvious. And figuring out how to express a few currently non-obvious details will take some effort on my part. So this might take a while to fully develop. And I may need to revise my thesis slightly. Most likely I'll develop the full concept over on my main web site, Above the Garage Productions.

And, by the way, if you're of a Libertarian bent, you'll enjoy the excellent articles by Alvin Lowi that I am privileged to host.

And, if someone has already figured this out*, I'd be happy to hear about it. It would save me a lot of effort.



* I mean besides Federal Reserve chairmen.

[Fix - "uniform -> universal". - ht Vincent.]

Blogged with the Flock Browser

Waste of time?

Just when you think all your rantin' and ravin' has been a complete waste of time... you discover your blog is the number two item returned for the following Google Search:

How to stop hyperinflation

So there's hope.


Blogged with the Flock Browser

Flock you!

I'm posting this from Flock.  Just to try it out.  'cause I do stuff like that.

Disneyland Hotel:

 

Seattle:

 

Hmm.
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2009-05-15

The Prudent Investor: The US debt balloon - a simple explanation for non-economists

The Prudent Investor: The US debt balloon - a simple explanation for non-economists

This is a very nice, extremely simple post about the path we are on to the bankruptcy of the federal government (and since the federal government is the primary supplier now of cash for state and local governments, I guess that will be the end of them too).

Luckily, it's easy enough to make a new government. The main trick will be creating a new government that works better than the old one. It's trivial to make a new, really bad government.

I have finally figured out the secret behind all of our (main) problems.* It's frighteningly simple to understand although I have no solution in mind.

The Austrians and the Libertarians almost have it right. The one question they never answer is - if capitalism is so great, why would anyone veer away from it?

Interesting question.


* How's that for a boast?

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2009-05-12

Cranes



Speaking of cranes, here's a big one, in downtown Seattle. Lots of construction there too.



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Chocolate





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Everything you need



  1. Domestic cold water - check.
  2. Waste disposal - check.
  3. Ethernet cabling - check.
We're good to go!

Plus, this was at the Pike Pub and Brewery, so, you know, there's lots of beer around, just in case.

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Don't worry, be happy




Hey, massive inflation ahead! Don't worry, be happy!
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Economic Disconnect

Economic Disconnect: Signs of the Times:

Signs of the Times

It has long been a central theme here at Economic Disconnect that the concepts of 'confidence' and 'group think' makes up the backbone of our financial system. The header of this blog reads 'Examining the disconnect between perception and reality' and this gulf must be maintained in order for the highly leveraged economic scheme to function. Tonight I will present several items that highlight just how bad a joke the situation had become.
And this guy, "Economic Disconnect", says all the things I want to say, but better, and with better research.
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Bank Stocks: What Could Still Go Wrong

Bank Stocks: What Could Still Go Wrong

The link is to a good list of events still waiting to attack the banking system. It's a good list, and I'm tired of repeating what is likely to go wrong, and why, absent massive government intervention, most banks are still insolvent. Since government intervention is likely the follow on result from that will be significant if not massive inflation.
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2009-05-10

The metaview

Banks Brace for Credit Card Write-Offs - NYTimes.com:

"But if unemployment breaches 10 percent, as many economists predict, the rate of uncollectible balances at some banks could far exceed that level. At American Express and Capital One Financial, around 20 percent of the credit card balances are expected to go bad over this year and next, according to stress test results. At Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, about 23 percent of card loans are expected to sour.

Even the government’s grim projections may vastly understate the size of the banks’ credit card troubles. According to estimates by Oliver Wyman, a management consulting firm, card losses at the nation’s biggest banks could reach $141.5 billion by 2010 if the regulators’ loss rate was applied to their entire credit card business. It could top $186 billion for the entire credit card industry."
I have a zillion links I collected over the last few days about the bogus stress test results, but I have settled with the link above to the New York Times.

The main points for all of those links I saved up are as follows:

  • The stress test scenario was not negative enough.
  • The banks argued back about the results and the results were changed!
  • Assumptions for individual banks were wrong; BofA, which has huge credit card exposure, was assumed to have defaults below the national average.
  • The stress tests say the banks need as much as $600 billion dollars in additional equity; but they are only required to find an extra $75 billion. For BofA, that's a dilution of almost 50% of it's current market value.
For most people, the financial meltdown is happening in an alternate universe. I remember when the run on the money market funds was first announced. I wandered over at lunch time to get some money out of the ATM machine. It was located at a busy mall and everyone was carrying on as if nothing significant was happening.

The end has been expected ever since we went off the gold standard in 1971. The value of a dollar is about 5% of what it was when FDR confiscated everyone's gold. If the value of a dollar has dropped so much, then why aren't things much worse?

I say it's because the efficiency of American business has outstripped the ability of the government (so far) to print money. Computers are a million times faster than they were a few decades ago. That has had a huge impact on everything from communication to transportation.

I would like to believe that American ingenuity will outstrip the government's money printing operation but I don't think so this time. The world has changed. China is a huge world power and holds a lot of our debt. Consumer spending has been tapped out. The value of home mortgages (and by implication a lot of retirement money) has been tapped out. The baby boomers managed to contribute more to the Social Security Ponzi scheme than was taken out but those times are changing too. The leverage of the banking system is higher than it has ever been. Corruption is at amazing highs. Who thought a government agent could lose $50 billion and not even get a slap on the wrist?

I sound like my Dad sounded in the 70's. I personally have never worried about the state of our financial system before now. I always had confidence that American ingenuity would outpace government stupidity. Now I don't think so.

Am I a nutjob? (Don't answer that.)

Well, time will tell. I certainly don't think the level of concern I have makes me a nutjob. What's not to be concerned about?

  • China doubles its holdings of gold;
  • The balance sheet of the federal reserve is insanely out of control;
  • Record deficit spending;
  • Expected credit card defaults out the wazoo;
  • A prime mortgages are defaulting at increasing rates;
and most importantly:
  • Nobody knows what the fuck is going on.

I will be amazed if Bank of America makes it through the end of the year as an independent concern (and I use the word independent loosely, since it's already on life support). I think it's gonna be the Bank of the United States of America.

I know what you're thinking ... big deal! So what if BofA is nationalized. Indeed. That is a very reasonable response. The idea of hyperinflation caused by all these bailouts (and most importantly the printing of money to keep the federal government from defaulting on its loans) is so hard to conceive. Surely we're not as dumb as those guys in Zimbabwe that printed $50 trillion bills. Are we?

And what if we are? What's a person to do? So why worry about it?

Indeed.
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Better Construction Pic




This is a better* shot of the construction in downtown Bellevue. I used a tripod but even so my camera refused to focus properly. There's probably a way to get it to do what I want hidden away in some submenu. Also, to avoid any motion from touching the camera, I set the timer, so the vibration could settle down before the shutter opened.

You can tell it's a time exposure because the reflection in the water is blurred from the motion of the water.

A friend works for the city of Bellevue and he said that a couple of years ago there were 36 big cranes rented west of the Mississippi and Bellevue had 17 of them. Overall office occupancy rates are only down 5% which is absolutely great news because we can hope that the commercial real estate bubble deflation that is coming over the next year will have a "soft landing" in Bellevue (as the pundits like to say). Although, man, that's a lot of new office space. Luckily Microsoft seems focused on filling up a lot of it.

* Better - better focus. But I rather like the previous one, art-wise.

[Update: I guess all of the other cranes were in Las Vegas.]
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2009-05-08

Bellevue Under Construction



If you look really hard, you might see the Enterprise getting built.

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