Acceptance ... and Roadmap

I am less pissed about the bailouts and the coming inflation.  That's because I've passed from anger to acceptance.  And I've rearranged my life so the impact of various scenarios is as small as I can make it.  It is hard to innoculate oneself against such chaos since the timing is so random thanks to previously unheard of levels of market manipulation by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, the investment banks, the "regular" banks, the credit card companies, and the Obama stimulus money.

I'd love to tell you how to inoculate yourself but everyone's circumstances are so different I'm afraid you have to figure it out for yourself.

Just because I've crossed over to acceptance doesn't change that it's a cluster fuck of epic proportions. I think those of us that have "pre-panicked" are going to get through the next crash more easily than those that will be further shell shocked.

Still, I find I'm starting to post about more pedestrian things and taking more photos and such like.

Since the coming stages of the global clusterfuck are fairly well known I'll just post interesting roadmaps as I come across them.

This picture from Credit Suisse (which I found reading Calculated Risk) lays it out for you:

Click image for big picture.  Basically it says the current clusterfuck is scheduled out to around 2013; obviously it doesn't include any new clusterfuckness caused by further debt bubbles created by the Federal Reserve.

The next crash will be brutal because everyone thinks we're past the worst! That will make the next crash doubly depressing and really hard on everyone.


2024-08-23 - How have we been doing since 2009?  I asked ChatGPT:

Here’s a concise list of economic downturns in the U.S. since 2009:

1. Great Recession Aftermath (2009-2010): The economy was still recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, with high unemployment and sluggish growth.

2. 2011 European Debt Crisis Impact: The U.S. experienced a slowdown due to the Eurozone crisis, leading to market volatility and concerns about a potential double-dip recession.

3. 2015-2016 Oil Price Collapse: A sharp decline in oil prices led to a slowdown in the energy sector, impacting jobs and investment in related industries.

4. Late 2018 Stock Market Decline: Concerns over trade wars, rising interest rates, and a global economic slowdown caused significant market declines, sparking fears of an impending recession.

5. COVID-19 Pandemic Recession (2020): The pandemic led to a severe but brief recession, with unprecedented unemployment rates and a sharp contraction in economic activity.

6. 2022 Inflation and Recession Fears: Rising inflation, driven by supply chain disruptions and energy price spikes, led to concerns about a potential recession as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively.

These downturns reflect periods of economic stress, though the severity and duration of each varied.

We've had some brushes with Treasury auction failures but pulled through each time.   I asked ChatGPT about that:

Undersubscribed U.S. Treasury auctions, where demand for government debt is weaker than expected, have occurred infrequently, but there are some notable instances:

1. 2011 Debt Ceiling Crisis: During the debt ceiling standoff in 2011, there were concerns about the U.S. government potentially defaulting on its obligations. This uncertainty led to a few undersubscribed auctions, particularly in the short-term Treasury bill market.

2. 2013 Government Shutdown: The partial government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis in 2013 also saw weaker demand at Treasury auctions. The uncertainty surrounding the government’s ability to pay its debts made investors cautious.

3. 2021 Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery: In early 2021, there were reports of weaker demand in some Treasury auctions, particularly in longer-dated securities like the 7-year note. This occurred as investors grew concerned about rising inflation and the potential for higher interest rates, making existing bonds less attractive.

4. 2022 and Early 2023: As inflation concerns persisted and the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates aggressively, there were a few instances where demand for Treasury auctions was weaker than expected, particularly for longer-term securities.

These events are relatively rare, as U.S. Treasuries are typically seen as a safe haven, but they can occur during periods of significant economic or political uncertainty.

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